Attachment 4

 

 


Projected Loss of Dairy Farms in New England With and Without the Compact

 

 

                   Vermont                      

                    New England

                 with compact      without                            with compact     without

Year 1

69 +/-

180 +/-

 

120 +/-

312 +/-

Year 2

65 +/-

180 +/-

 

105 +/-

296 +/-

Total

134 +/-

360 +/-

 

225 +/-

608 +/-

 

 

 

 

Report prepared by Allbee and Associates at request of Compact Commission, June 2001.

            Author’s assumptions:

§         That the market would be unable to hold a premium over a two-year period without the Compact, particularly given large grain surpluses, production increases in the West and the Midwest and other factors.

§         That the base rate of exit for dairy farms in New England is 4.4 percent with or without the Compact.

§         That milk production will increase by 2.5 percent per year with the Compact as herds expand.

§         That only 75 percent of economically distressed dairy farms will exit in two years due to legal timing and rights, and the struggle of some to continue even in light of negative farm earnings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Information sources for analysis include USDA, FSA, the VT Industry Development Authority (VIDA), NASS and the Farm Credit Dairy Farm Summaries.